Wednesday, August 13, 2008

UPDATE 1-Thai consumer confidence recovers in July

BANGKOK, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Thai consumer confidence rose in July after falling for three straight months, boosted by the government's economic stimulus measures, cheaper subsidised petrol and robust exports, a survey showed on Thursday.

The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) said its survey showed these positive factors outweighed political uncertainty caused by protests against Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej and concern over the global credit market crisis.

The recovery in July surprised some analysts, who had expected consumption to remain sluggish due to high inflation.

"It may be premature to say that consumer confidence has returned, but the possibility of oil prices hovering in a lower $100-120 range in the second half and the boost from state stimulus measures should improve sentiment in the months ahead," UTCC poll director Thanavath Phonvichai told reporters.

"One negative factor for the economy is lingering political uncertainty," he said, referring to what might happen now former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has decided to leave the country without fighting corruption charges against him in court.

The street protests have been aimed partly at Thaksin, seen as the power behind the Samak government.

In a bid to shore up its popularity among urban voters, the government introduced stimulus measures in July for six months, including a cut in consumption tax for petrol, free bus and train rides, and reduced power and water charges.

Adding to the beneficial effects of these measures, world oil prices have fallen sharply in recent weeks.

Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee, who has tried to revive consumer confidence as soaring inflation curbed Thais' purchasing power, voiced disapproval of the Bank of Thailand's decision to raise interest rates in July to tackle inflation.

That has led to a rift between the government and central bank over how to tackle inflation, which hit a 10-year high of 9.2 percent in July.

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