Thursday, July 31, 2008

Market Report: Stock Ticker


Market Updates
A late sell off knocked the stock market sharply lower before closing near its worst point of the session. The Dow and the S&P 500 finished 1.8% and 1.3% lower, respectively. The Nasdaq closed with a modest loss.


Thursday s loss concluded what was an overall pessimistic session. The tone was set early on after disappointing economic data was unveiled.

According to the latest government data, the U.S. economy expanded 1.9% in the second quarter, missing 2.3% gain economists were expecting. Though the top line of this number is a bit disappointing, its downside surprise is to a negative impact from inventories. What is more, trends in consumer spending, business investment, exports, and government spending were generally better than forecast.

Many Wall Street pundits and economists believe U.S. economic growth will not return to its full potential until housing has successfully turned around. Former Fed Chairman Greenspan stated in an interview on CNBC that home prices are no where near a bottom. He also acknowledged there

Wednesday, July 30, 2008

UK Market Updates

Searching for a price

There are a number of different routes you can use to access the price information.

From the main website homepage and from the Prices & news page you will see a Price Search panel with the instruction “Enter Name/code”. Here you can enter the company name, a TIDM code, a SEDOL code or an ISIN code. The search results will then display a list of all companies matching your search criteria. Clicking on the company name will then take you to the detailed price page for that company.

If there are a large number of stocks that match your search criteria they will be displayed on several separate pages. Navigate your way through these pages by clicking on the page numbers at the top or bottom of the table.

A more specific search facility is available within the Prices & News section by clicking on Companies & Prices. From this page you can search by name or code. You can also further define your search based on industry sector or index, by market, by international or landMARKTM region.

When you are in the Companies & Prices section you will see a number of options down the left hand navigation menu e.g. AIM, landMARK, techMARK mediscience, Covered Warrants etc. These options will take you to the relevant price search page.

Sunday, July 27, 2008

Market Update


Weekly Recap - Week ending 25-Jul-08

The stock market was unable to build on the prior week's gains, but it wasn't for a lack of trying. In turn, it wasn't because it lacked catalysts either.

Oil prices slipped another 4.7% to $123.34 per barrel, the financial sector was up as much as 10.6% at its high for the week, earnings news was generally better than expected (or feared in some cases), and Congress, by all accounts, was on the verge of passing a housing bill that the president already said he would sign into law.

The surge in financials early in the week stemmed from a continuing sense of relief that there wasn't another round of dilutive capital raising efforts and the idea that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac weren't going to be allowed to fail.


Bank of America kicked off the reporting for the financial sector this week and it did so a relatively good note, offering an indication that its intention is to maintain its current dividend. In contrast, Wachovia, Regions Financial, and Fifth Third all cut their dividend, yet none signaled that they would have to raise more capital through a stock offering.

The enthusiasm toward the financial stocks ended in a hurry on Thursday, though, when the sector dropped 6.8% and suffered its largest decline in more than eight years.

The thinking that the sector had gone too far, too, fast, coupled with the return of worries about the sector's financial condition, which followed many reports of large increases to provisions for loan losses, led to the reversal of fortune. From its high on Wednesday to its close on Friday, the sector dropped 9.7%.

From our vantage point, the financial sector pullback should not have been seen as a surprise.

CRASH ALERT UPDATE

As overviewed in my June "Stock Market Crash Alert", based upon Dow Theory, the Elliott Wave Principle and other forms of technical analysis, there is a high probability the a "Grand Supercycle" collapse in stock prices and mass mood is now underway that will ultimately outline the collapse of Western Civilization.

At the current juncture, there is the possibility that a full-scale global financial panic is developing that could result in a crash as soon as the coming week. However, I deem this to be a low probability with the greater likelihood being that a significant "dead cat bounce" is due for the stock market after which the crux of the "Grand Supercycle crash" should be expected to unfold....possibly in the "Fall" of this year.

Saturday, July 26, 2008

World News "Banks brace for more pain"

Arch Coal said on Friday its second-quarter profit tripled and topped Wall Street expectations as strong global demand pushed coal prices higher.

The St. Louis company

ARCH COAL INC
ACI

55.64 4.70 +9.23%
NYSE












[ACI 55.64 4.70 (+9.23%) ] also raised its full-year outlook, and its shares jumped nearly 10 percent in morning trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

"Global markets for coal are incredibly tight," Gordon Howald, analyst with Calyon Securities, said. "Unless oil is going to collapse and coal follows it down, there is a lot of upside in here for coal stocks."

Net income in the quarter rose to $113 million, or 78 cents a share, from $37.6 million, or 26 cents a share, a year ago and above Wall Street's expectations of 64 cents a share.

"Looking ahead, we expect continued solid execution from our Central Appalachian and Western Bituminous segments coupled with improving fundamentals in our Powder River Basin operations," Chief Executive Steven Leer said in a statement.

Midwest flooding disrupted deliveries of Powder River Basin coal in the second quarter.

Revenue in the quarter rose about 30 percent to $785.1 million, driven by higher averages sales prices in all its operating regions.

Analysts on average had forecast revenue of $738.5 million, according to Reuters Estimates.

Thursday, July 24, 2008

2008 Market Review & Forecast

The TIA 2008 Telecommunications Market Review and Forecast provides the most reliable and up-to-date information on the telecommunications industry. It will help you anticipate market changes, assist you in adjusting your business models, and give you the confidence to explore new business opportunities and provide your customers with new and innovative products, services and solutions. As you develop your business plan and strategy, reference the most comprehensive report in the industry – the TIA 2008 Telecommunications Market Review and Forecast. See historical data back to 2001 and projections through 2011.

Trends, Analyses and Projections

The worldwide telecommunications market is expected to grow at a 9.2 percent compound annual growth rate from 2008 to 2011. How will your company take advantage of this growth, and which segments will fuel this expansion? This report helps you gain insight into trends in major industry segments, including:

  • Applications Software
  • Broadband Technologies (DSL, cable, satellite, fixed wireless)
  • Broadband over Power Lines
  • Collaborative Technologies (audioconferencing, web conferencing and video conferencing)
  • Converged Data Networks
  • Economic, Regulatory and Technology Drivers
  • EDGE Technologies/Softswitches
  • Formal/Non-formal Call Centers
  • International Markets
  • Interexchange Market
  • IP-equipment and Applications
  • LAN/WAN Internetworking
  • Landline vs. Wireless Communications Market
  • Mobile Communications
  • Network Infrastructure Equipment and Services
  • Optical Networking
  • Professional Services
  • Prepaid Telephony, including wireless and Internet
  • Virtual Private Networks
  • Voice over Internet Protocol
  • Voice Recognition Technologies
  • Voice/Data Communications for the Enterprise
  • Wireless Data Services
  • Wireless Internet Access including Wi-Fi and WiMAX
  • And more …

KSE Exchage

But it still intrigues me why and how the market in an economy like Pakistan - where the stock market itself is rather small in terms of size as well as participation - works in relation to what is happening in the society at large. The charts, and news, clearly indicate that the stock exchange in Pakistan has not been oblivious to the political and socio-economic upheavals of the last many months. But the direction seems to have been clearly upwards and it is not clear just how much of those events are reflected in the market.

One is used in larger markets (USA, Europe, Japan) to seeing the happenings in society and politics to have deep and immediate impacts on the market fluctuations. Is it the same in Pakistan? Or is it that because so many fewer people are actually invested in stocks that the stock market’s rhythms are less intertwined with local happenings and more with global and international happenings (especially if much of the capital flow is from international investors)? And, if, indeed, the stock market in Pakistan is as much of a barometer and reflection of what is happening in the country, then what is it that the market has been telling us all year, and is telling us now?

I know that many of our readers have far greater expertise in this area. Maybe they can help me and others decipher the meaning of all of this better.

KSE-100 Index Sets New Record: What is the Market Telling Us?



On Tuesday the Karachi Stock Exchange’s (KSE’s) KSE-100 Index - Pakistan’s equivalent to the Dow Jones Index - broke the psychological barrier of 15,000 for the first time. At the time of writing this (on what is Wednesday morning in Pakistan) the Index remains well above that mark.




The rise of the stock market(s) in Pakistan in recent years has been phenomenal. Much of this matches the rise of emerging markets all over the world, but the rise over the last year is particularly phenomenal given just how depressed, depressing, uncertain and unclear the politics of the country has been. My friends who work in the financial sector tell me that money can be made from bad news as much as from good news. I am sure they are right, though I am not sure if I understand all the nuances of how.

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Market Place Summary

Now that we know private fee-for-service (PFFS) is dead on January 1, 2011 in all but the most rural markets, how will the health plans who have significant PFFS business respond?

UnitedHealth is the first health plan to report earnings this quarter and I thought they had the right answer. From their earnings call transcript (Ovations CEO commenting):

We have had a strategy of deliberately positioning ourselves in favor of network based Medicare Advantage rather than private fee-for-service over the years, because we think we can unleash more value from Medicare that way and because of what we perceive to be a slow burn risk, if not a risk that is now crystallized, in the new law.

So the direct impact on us is minimal, because only around 7% of our Medicare Advantage membership is in private fee-for-service and all those 100,000 or so members 3/4 live in areas either unaffected by the law or where we already have network based alternatives. [The growth opportunities are great for us] because obviously the end of deeming will mean that perhaps 80% of the private fee-for-service market will now over the next two years have to migrate to a network -based product and that’s something that we’ve been critically positioning ourselves for.

Potentially 1.7 million private fee-for-service members are going to be triggered into shopping and as the largest operator of network based Medicare Advantage...we hope to be able to capitalize on that opportunity.

KSE xchange


Saturday, July 19, 2008

MARKET SUMMARY